Penn State vs Wisconsin 11/26/2011

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Wisconsin is a heavy favorite winning 90% of simulations over Penn State. Russell Wilson is averaging 176 passing yards and 1.4 TDs per simulation and Montee Ball is projected for 134 rushing yards and a 83% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 10% of simulations where Penn State wins, Matthew McGloin averages 1.13 TD passes vs 0.61 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.48 TDs to 0.85 interceptions. Silas Redd averages 68 rushing yards and 0.64 rushing TDs when Penn State wins and 61 yards and 0.3 TDs in losses. Wisconsin has a 52% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is WIS -18.5

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